Ukraine Roundup 1
Diplomacy and Tensions in Eastern Europe
Ukraine is heating up with hundreds of thousands of uniformed Russian troops and over 60 Battalion Tactical Groups, the offensive maneuver element of the Russian Army. Ukraine is facing the genuine likelihood of a Russian invasion in the near term.
The State Department has authorized nonessential families to evacuate the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv (Kiev). This evacuation indicates that the U.S. thinks negotiations are breaking down between Russia and itself. In this crisis in Eastern Europe, the primary players are the U.S./U.K., Ukraine, and Russia, with Ukraine playing a less substantial diplomatic role than people may understand. A tremendous amount of what Russia does is dependent on what they believe the Western Powers will do and whether they can defeat Ukraine. It seems like Russia thinks there is a military or other solution to the latter, and it’s up to the Western Powers to deter that solution.
A quick note on the terminology used here, often pundits use Russian President Vladimir Putin in place of Russia or the Russian military, without doing the same for the Western States or Ukraine. That is a silly liberal semantic game where there is an effort to divorce intention from the action—Russians, Ukrainians, others that are the ones fighting.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken went on Face the Nation to discuss deterrence and diplomacy. The United States is wisely trying to continue a diplomatic route despite the outward appearance of a breakdown in talks. The United States and the United Kingdom do not benefit from a) increased or continued war in Ukraine and b) heightened hostilities with Russia in the pivot toward East Asia.
This comes as France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia conduct “Normandy” style talks this week. The timing of the discussions is interesting as it comes on the heels of German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht’s comments that weapons are not the answer in Ukraine and a German Vice-Admiral resigned after recorded statements.
There is something very suspicious about how this German Vice-Admiral phrased his reasons for détente with Russia beyond the citing of Mackinder’s Heartland Theory view of the Russia-China relations. Anyone viewing Russia in a comparative religious context should understand that the Faith is weak despite its revival, especially when comparing it to the United States.
Meanwhile, the United States sends tons of weapons, including Javelin Anti-Tank Missiles. Unlike other countries the United States sent arms to, we are not sending more famous systems like the Patriot or the newer THAAD. These are specifically identified as red-line equipment by Russia, which will trigger hostilities. Russia believes these larger missile systems are capable of offensive missile launches. The United States and the United Kingdom are specifically interested in deterring a full-scale invasion. It’s important to neutralize Russian armor and aviation advance to prevent such an attack.
Simultaneously, President Joe Biden ordered the bolstering of U.S. troop presence in Europe in response to Russian aggression. In the modern era, land forces need forward deployment to respond to crises rapidly, even with advances in transportation. Therefore the U.S. and U.K. are sending large amounts of weapons to Ukraine now – if the equipment does not arrive in the hands of Ukrainian troops before a Russian invasion, the equipment is irrelevant. In a discussion in a Twitter Space, I discussed the Ukrainian use of landmines. Given the difficulties of placing them in the winter, it’s unlikely that Ukraine can meaningfully expand its existing minefields. Ukraine probably placed all the landmines it can now, even though mines are effective against Russian formations.
Here’s a bit of speculation on my part: The Russian Armed Forces are militarily sophisticated with a host of modern weapons. Pundits underestimate the amount of concentrated firepower Russia could bring to bear in a land war. An invasion by the Russian regular army will operate on a scale much larger than the 2014 Russian attack. Russian Battalion Tactical Groups will outmaneuver Ukrainian low-grade and irregular units caught in the field and destroy them in detail. More disciplined and already emplaced Ukrainian troops will consolidate around the cities. A conflict would result in the early acquisition of territory as Ukrainian troops consolidate into entrenched hardpoints around the cities, forcing the Russians to commit direct assaults. This will result in tremendous casualties and incredible brutality [/speculation]. Therefore, Russia uses espionage, intelligence, and intrigue to topple Ukraine’s government to achieve a favorable solution for Russia.
There’s a lot of discussion around Russian military deception on Twitter. You never know what a ruse or feint is until after the fact. Before then, everything is a conclusion based on some analysis or speculation.
In future posts, I will examine how long will Ukrainian energy supplies last in a Russian invasion, more news, the Heartland Theory, and other vital issues.