The Fate of Finland (and Sweden)

Finland and Sweden joining NATO

During my break from writing, I spent a lot of time researching Russia’s domestic politics and foreign relations from the 19th century to today. Public understanding of Russian history, especially the Russian Revolution, is wrong. Set within the intrigues surrounding the World Wars, much is lost to the memory holes of history.

However, Finland and Sweden announced they intended to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. I don’t know how the treaty ratification process will work on the American side, but the chances are good that the rest of Scandinavia will join the alliance.

NATO was founded in 1949 in response to the growing military threat of the Soviet Union in the wake of the Second World War. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the alliance continues to this day. In the Russo-Ukraine War, the Russian casus belli is the potential inclusion of Ukraine into NATO, a redline according to their national security strategy.

cdrsalamander @cdrsalamander

https://t.co/6iwf8LPpLQ

Benjamin Bathke @BenjaminBathke

"It's the most important transformation of our security architecture in decades," says @camille_grand about NATO since Feb 24. Adds NATO needs long-term strategy. Jüri Luik, 🇪🇪 rep to NATO agrees: ➖️ support Ukraine during peace time ➖️ strengthen NATO's eastern flank https://t.co/yBoJcfl7oR

When discussing the geography of Europe, the Western border, or NATO’s East, is a frontline. U.S. Members of Congress and Senators went on the public record and formalized the proxy war status America and Russia are in currently. Legislators shouldn’t say such things in public for likes on Twitter. There’s a reason there are different branches of government. Congress isn’t in the business of proxy wars, at least in public.

Stop Asking for WW3

The threat of Russian invasion loomed heavily over Sweden and Finland for centuries. There were centuries of conflict over the Baltics and the Finnish regions between the Scandinavian powers and the Russian Empire.

From 1939 to 1940, Finland and the Soviet Union fought in the Winter War. While the Soviets won, it came at a substantial cost, suffering nearly 4x the casualties. Subsequently, Finland invaded the Soviet Union in 1941, immediately following the German Invasion of the Soviet Union Operation Barbarossa. The Continuation War would last until 1944, at the signing of an armistice compelling Finland to go to war with Germany in the Lapland War.

Sweden fought many wars with Russia over the years. In 1808, Russia occupied the island of Gotland in the Finnish War. During the Second World War, Sweden mostly played an ancillary role in supporting Finland and the Axis. However, Sweden supported both sides with trade and its merchant fleet. Swedish iron ore played a substantial role in keeping the German arms industry alive. Sweden provided the allies with significant naval intelligence. Sweden originally was to play a role in the liberation of Denmark, but instead, British and Soviet forces liberated the Danes in 1945.

Both countries are very concerned with the Russian military might, no matter how diminished it is. Both countries’ militaries are smaller than Russia’s, and the Russian economy is robust in the face of sanctions. The shock of the Russo-Ukraine war sent a shockwave through the governments of the non-aligned states. Now, Sweden and Finland are looking to join NATO for good reasons.

Both countries are militarily vulnerable. Russia seizing Gotland could hold Sweden hostage. A Russian push into Finland would be costly, but Finland is still weak, especially after destroying its landmine stockpile. Joining NATO means an invasion of either nation would erupt in a war with the largest modern armies outside of East Asia.

I agree with John Mearsheimer that the promises of Ukrainian NATO membership were folly. The die is cast, and nations are making their choices about which side in the conflict happens. Before the 2022 land invasion of Ukraine, the possibility someday of Russia looking Westward had hope; now it is firmly the junior partner of China.

On that note, it’s important to address the hyperbole of conservative commentators. As I discussed in the past, the endlessly knee-jerk political posturing is unproductive. My preference for no war in Ukraine doesn’t make the war never happen. The same goes for Sweden’s and Finland’s interest in joining the alliance. Most of the reasoned objections center around the consequences of bifurcating Europe between NATO and Russia and possibly escalating. World War II did start as a series of border wars in Europe that escalated until it embroiled the world in war.