Tension in the Far East

Understanding the Political Struggle of China and Taiwan

Many people post about China - Taiwan status(es). There’s a lot of wrong information promulgated by the hawks and doves on the China question. The history of US-Chinese relations is far more intricate and nuanced than people understand. In my opinion, the question of Communism and containment has less to do with China than punditry wants to believe. First, we must discuss contemporary Chinese politics since the Civil War to understand US-Chinese relations.

This article will be reasonably brief regarding the intricacies of Chinese politics. Currently, I am researching China more and more after a stint of learning about modern Russia. The language barrier is very real, but luckily many English speakers share valuable information from time to time.

The Republic of China government rules Taiwan, founded by Chiang Kai-Shek and the Nationalist Chinese Kuomingtang (KMT). The KMT traces its roots to Sun Yat-sen, the “Father of the Nation” in Chinese Nationalist circles. More on Sun Yat-sen later; however, Sun is the eternal premier of the KMT. The KMT was founded in 1919, and Sun Yat-sen died in 1925. In 1926, Generalissimo Chiang Kai-Shek took over the party. Following the 14 Year War of Resistance against Japan and defeat in mainland China, Chiang’s government and the army moved to Taiwan (formerly called Formosa by Westerners). There the Republic of China has remained.

Sun Yat-sen’s legacy is based on his political philosophy, “Three Principles of the People.” These principles are Nationalism (Mínzú, 民族主義), Rights of the People (Mínquán, 民權主義, and the People’s Welfare (Mínshēng, 民生主義, think communitarianism).

The KMT is committed to the One-China policy, with the nationalist government in Taipei as the government of China. The KMT generally recognizes the 1992 Consensus, “one China, different interpretations.” The 1992 Consensus was an informal meeting between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the KMT to open up relations. Contrary to popular understanding, the CCP and KMT are committed to reunification. The public recognition of the 1992 Consensus is mixed based on partisanship and the needs of electoral politics.

Today the KMT is the minority party in Taiwan politics. The Democrat Progressive Party (DPP) is the majority and has held the president's office since 2000. DPP believes Taiwan is an independent and sovereign country whose territory consists of Taiwan and its surrounding islands and whose sovereignty derives from the ROC citizens.

The main disputes in Taiwanese politics are around the unification of China versus Taiwanese independence, with the KMT supporting reunification someday and the DPP supporting total independence. However, DPP’s stance is even more nuanced: Taiwan is an independent nation under the name of the Republic of China, making a formal declaration of independence unnecessary. DPP rejects the One-China Policy and the 1992 Consensus.

The President of Taiwan is Tsai Ing-wen, of the DPP party, whose main drive is continuing the status quo and strengthening economic ties with the PRC and United States. This nuance is essential – for the United States, the US-Taiwan relationship is heavily predicated on Beijing-Taipei (capital of Taiwan) relations and internal elections. Consider that Taiwan produces so many semiconductors and is immediately proximal to the world’s largest country. The fundamental reality is that conflict does not need to happen for the status quo to remain, nor for reunification under terms unfavorable to the United States.

In Beijing, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the recognized government of China, is ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In the CCP, Sun Yat-sen is considered the “Forerunner of the Revolution.” Across China, there’s a street in every city named after Sun and multiple memorials, universities, and buildings bearing his name.

Xi Jinping is the current President of the PRC and CCP General Secretary. Xi Jinping is a kind of communist political nobility of China; his father was also a senior official in the CCP. Despite what conservative pundits portray, the CCP and PRC have intricate and nuanced politics that govern contemporary foreign and domestic policy decisions.

President Xi Jinping proposed a “One China, two systems” policy to Taiwan in 2019, which Taiwan President Tsai rejected. In my opinion, Xi Jinping is committed to the peaceful integration of Chinese cities and states near mainland China. The Xi family is fascinating in this regard, given their prominence since Mao.

It’s important to understand that Xi Jinping and his father are basically part of the reformist part of the CCP. Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, was a communist revolutionary leader who fought during their civil war and War of Resistance against Japan. Zhongxun was part of a faction that pushed for economic liberalization. He was purged and imprisoned several times.

In 1987, Xi Zhongxun was the only one to stand in defense of Hu Yaobang, another reformist, against Deng Xiaoping during a purge of Hu. Hu Yaobang was the Chairman and then General Secretary of the CCP. Hu Yaobang’s death will be the direct cause of the Tiananmen Square Protests in 1989 that led to the massacre. Among other demands, the protestors demanded economic reforms.

President & General Secretary Hu Jintao (no relation) would rehabilitate Hu Yaobang. Xi Jinping would later succeed Hu Jintao. The Xi family, and Hu Yaobang, both opened up the potential for closer relations with Japan, among others, despite it being a politically unpopular position. To this day, hatred and suspicion among the Northeast Asian countries still govern cultural and political affairs. Even in authoritarian systems, there is political factionalism and a de facto internal party structure. Not coincidentally, recently deceased Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s father was a foreign minister from 1982 to 1986.

Without going into all the region's interests, we are entering very interesting times in East Asia. Previously dominant factions like the KMT aren’t in power, and the hardliners in China basically lost the presidency for the foreseeable future. The nationalists are in Beijing, so to speak.

For strategic ambiguity, the United States cannot recognize that there is more than one China, as this has been the status quo for decades. Additionally, for this reason, only Nancy Pelosi can entertain a visit to Taiwan. Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, has greater latitude in traveling abroad in circumstances of political ambiguity than any executive branch member. Previously, Newt Gingrich visited Taipei in the 1990s. The Biden White House and Speaker Pelosi reaffirmed the commitment to existing US policy toward China.

Many factors are driving the visit to Taiwan by Speaker Pelosi. The Russo-Ukraine War has exposed Russia as the junior partner of an alliance with China. Additionally, China has stepped up the rhetoric of forcible reunification with Taiwan. Given the DPP government of Taiwan, Taiwan is willing to stand firm in opposition. In the background, the ever-present political closeness of the two Chinese governments concerns American decision-makers, and a strong statement of our support of Taiwan, China, and peace was necessary. Furthermore, given the recent passing of the CHIPS Act, Taiwan needs assurances that the United States will not abandon Taiwan.

Very smart people run Communist China. In any effort to expand or control Taiwan or other places, it will move very deliberately and slowly.

Will strategic ambiguity and One-China continue forward with the DPP dominance in Taipei? Does One-China and would KMT rule benefit the CCP? I cannot say for sure. It is an incredibly delicate situation. One facet to understand is that, as a matter of statecraft and policy, conflict is avoidable and may be unnecessary for any party to achieve its aims. Be very careful about those banging drums on either extreme end.

*image credit to Tribune India