Russian Winter & China in Kazakhstan
Taking Other Countries Seriously
(Valery Sharifulin / TASS)
One of the most painful parts of foreign policy is the general disinterest by those in government to take important policy matters seriously. Depending on your political persuasion, either this is obvious or surprising. Regardless, it’s a substantial issue. In the punditry, this issue is exacerbated because words and talk are cheap.
The political left is replete with platitudes about human rights and commentary about the importance of democracy. The first priority of national security is securing the nation and its interests above all else. As I’ve discussed earlier, that priory is often subdued by ideology.
Wherever you fall on China, Russia, or anyone else for that matter, taking their interests and priorities are essential. It’s also important to recognize their aims. Often rhetoric doesn’t meet action, as I’ve discussed with Russia’s efforts to break Ukraine without firing a shot.
The Kazakhstan of it all
In reading a New York Post article about President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, and his dealings in China mentioned a former Prime Minister arrested in Kazakhstan. As much as the tendency of Twitter pundits, anonymous or not (some of whom harbor extreme animosity toward the United States), to blame the CIA, I wondered if there was a Chinese connection to the revolt in Kazakhstan.
Geographically, Kazakhstan is between China and Russia, two of the world’s leading major powers. Though very friendly with one another, these countries need to create and preserve a sphere of influence. Kazakhstan is very close to Russia, from its time under the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. Though Kazakhstan became independent in 1990, the relationship is very close.
Kazakhstan is the leading producer of uranium. The country produces a tremendous amount of oil, base and precious metals. Kazakhstan is also increasing as an exporter of wheat. All these commodities are ones that China consumes in droves.
Former Prime Minister and ex-head of Kazakhstan State Security (National Security Committee), Karim Masimov, was arrested on suspicion of treason in early January 2022. Hunter Biden had reached out to Chinese officials and Masimov, seen in his leaked emails.
SCMP Report on Masimov’s China Close Ties.
According to GlobalSecurity.org, “His career prior to his government service is equally important because, as a China specialist, Masimov represented Kazakhstan’s commercial interests in Beijing and Hong Kong in the early 1990s and was alleged to have played a role in transferring money to Hong Kong banks for Nazarbaev, who is considered one of the wealthiest men in Kazakhstan.” Could China have recruited Masimov during this time when Soviet/Russian intelligence was the weakest? Only Russian, Kazakh, and Chinese security services know.
Either way, Russian and Kazakh security forces are rounding up a lot of persons connected with interests in China as well as the rebels. This Chinese connection isn’t to say that there was no Western involvement, but Kazakhstan will be in either Russia’s or China’s sphere, and China would make Kazakh elites wealthier. China is a serious country after all.
When I was in college, one of the guys I trained Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with was a Kazakh government official. I wonder if he’s alive and okay.
Winter, Warmth, and Illness in the Field
Reports are coming out that Russian troops on the Ukraine border are suffering from poor conditions and illness in the field. I have a news flash too: winter is cold.
From my experience in the Marine Corps, this happens quite a bit in extreme temperatures and field environments. A massive stomach bug went around the combat outpost in my second deployment. Of a company reinforced, we had maybe a platoon that was well. This ties into what we know about World War I and World War II – disease and weather can be destructive.
However, I would hesitate to exaggerate the importance of these conditions.
Russia is a frigid place, and I would guess that Russian troops operate in the field often during winter. Sure, conditions are worse than garrison conditions American troops operate in, but the videos don’t seem that different from a field environment US troops would experience. A winter field encampment is going to be rough no matter what. Also, these Russian troops are young, healthy, and vaccinated, which supposedly blunts the effects of the Coronavirus. Conditions there aren’t as bad as World War II, and these troops are better equipped and trained than conscripts of that time.
Also, we need to take other countries seriously – Russia doesn’t really throw away manpower arbitrarily. That’s a Western myth that doesn’t consider the reality of maneuver warfare and armored breakthroughs from World War II.