Russian Special Forces in Ukraine
Russian Special Forces and why Ukraine's Regular Army is its best hope
(Image sourced from mil.ru via Wikipedia https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SAVX0287-2(1).jpg)
Russian Spetznaz and Tactical Intelligence Operatives:
Today the British Defence Minister James Heappey stated, "we are becoming aware of a significant number of individuals that are assessed to be associated with Russian military advance force operations and currently located in Ukraine." His statement translated to normal-speak means that the United Kingdom believes there are some deep reconnaissance elements of the Russian military in Ukraine already in Ukraine (where they aren't typically). Reconnaissance is crucial for any successful military operation, especially those requiring significant maneuvers. In my military experience, specialized infantry like U.S. Marine Scout-Sniper Teams in Afghanistan would perform deep infiltration to set up listening/observation posts. Even in the modern era of high-tech optical and technical surveillance, there isn't a replacement for an eyes-on target. The media won't cover this point – given how heavy food is to backpack in, these reconnaissance teams are getting resupplied locally, or there's an imminent attack.
Above is a video released by the Ukrainian government from a Russian FSB Sniper team in Eastern Ukraine.
Previously, the U.S. Secretary of State discussed Russian Intelligence (FSB, GRU) recruiting local operatives. The recruitment fits with an effort by Russia to obtain maximum information dominance before any strike. Russia understands it will have limited time to achieve its objectives and must rapidly cut off and eliminate significant resistance. Otherwise, Russian forces, bogged down by a grinding conflict, risk failure.
Can Ukraine Hold its Ground?
Many pundits are discussing the unlikely ability of Ukraine to mount a successful guerrilla war in Eastern Ukraine in Russia. I don't disagree entirely. However, we've overlearned lessons of guerrilla warfare in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan because we rapidly crushed uniformed and organized military units. Ukraine's best chance to resist an assault is its uniformed troops, consolidated in the urban districts, not its irregulars who may not withstand Russian artillery barrages, drones, and intelligence-driven, optics-equipped midnight commando raids. Given Russia’s penchant for not respecting civil rights or civilian targets and its counterinsurgency capabilities, the effectiveness of a Ukrainian guerrilla force is questionable.
Furthermore, Ukrainian forces may fight because they'll be quickly outmaneuvered and trapped. At the same time, it's just as possible for mass surrenders, but that is why the uniformed element is more likely to provide the actual resistance. Discipline and capability will determine the outcome of the high-intensity conflict within the first 72 hours.
However, this point stands – Russian armor will push deep into Ukraine and start driving a substantial civilian population West. If Russia threatens Kyiv (Kiev), several large bridges across the Dnieper won't be accessible for civilians, further complicating reinforcement and causing a secondary crisis for Ukraine. Ukraine will rely on its large volume of manpower to make up for whatever tremendous land and manpower losses that will happen in the opening moves. Secondly, it will slow down Russian maneuver elements with Western anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder-fired missiles.
Ukraine's goal isn't to win an outright fight – Ukraine needs not lose major battles or sieges. If Russia seizes cities, it's unlikely Ukraine gains them back without Russia handing them back. Western media won’t report on Ukrainian troops digging in, but rather take photos and polemically discuss the importance of all-woman Ukrainian units. However, Russian thermobaric missiles don’t care about the sex of the person on the receiving end. Dig deep.
