Russian Offense Continues
Russia moves to encircle the Donetsk pocket and besiege multiple cities
Russian troops reportedly at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant
Kherson, Mariupol, and Other Updates.
Russian forces in Ukraine continue their push in various places. Ukrainian troops in the South and East are facing encirclement. The capital city of Kyiv (Kiev) is facing a siege and urban warfare. Russian troops continue their drive everywhere despite logistical issues and stubborn Ukrainian resistance. Currently, Russian forces successfully pinned down Ukrainian units in the East and have created a salient and are looking to close the pocket.
Let’s look at some maps for reference; see the links below.
I wasn’t able to find a Russia-friendly map.
Russian forces largely surround the city of Mariupol with a route out of the city that appears to be controlled by Russia. Reportedly, a general evacuation of civilians began in that city as Russian troops look to tighten the cordon and constrict the defending forces. This encirclement is a perilous position to be in as a defender. Ukraine already has a limited ability to resupply its troops despite having shorter supply lines than the Russians. This encirclement would be the death knell of any armor or armored vehicles in that area. Unable to resupply, repair, or refuel these vehicles, the fighting will be infantry-centric against the mechanized Russian army.
Meanwhile, Russian troops continue their clear and hold operation in the Northern city of Kharkiv. Kharkiv is a larger city facing greater resistance. Ukrainain troops must hold on to this city and delay Russian troops, especially in the case of Mariupol’s encirclement. If the way is clear between Kharkiv and Dnipro (a city in the center of Ukraine on the Dnieper river), Ukrainian forces in the East are cut off from resupply in the West. Russia would then create a series of smaller encirclements and destroy Ukrainian forces in detail.
At the same time, Russian troops secure the Southern city Kherson, which is the Westward gateway for Russian columns. These columns would look to cut the Dnieper crossings and threaten Odessa.
In Kyiv (Kiev), there are conflicting reports of whether Russian troops completely surround the city. It appears there is still an opening according to some maps of Russian positions; however, the freedom to maneuver is in question. A massive build-up of Russian troops suggests the Russians are preparing an assault on the capital city. This assault would be the largest urban fighting to date and the biggest single battle in the whole war. The destruction will be massive, and Russia will attempt to force a capitulation.
Elsewhere diplomatic talks began on the Ukrainian-Belorussian border. I don’t hold much hope for these talks, given that Russia is in a position to capitalize on its offensive action. Russia has settled into an effective operations tempo despite the previous dysfunction of Russian forces and dysfunctional logistics and leadership. To paraphrase a friend familiar with the Russian military, “They seem to be implementing a non-crazy strategy now-but their blocking and tackling still sucks.”