Russian Economic Warfare
How the Russian Army is an Instrument of Economic Conflict Too
Yesterday's piece on Vetsploitation is still going strong. Thank you for the positive comments. Veterans issues are important to me as a veteran who has faced and observed many obstacles. As I said to one journalist who enjoyed my piece, I find it cathartic, and I'm motivated to highlight these issues because of all of what I've seen on Twitter.
One of the questions I've received is how frequently I will post. So far, I've managed a daily upload, partially to practice writing. Writing is a skill that needs development, and writer's block is a pain. The trend is your friend. I probably won't continue daily uploading because I don't have much free time during the week, and occasionally, I need to travel.
The Ukraine situation continues the boil, as Russia hopes to boil Ukraine and crack it without committing the bulk of its offensive capabilities. Invasion is still likely to happen, but there's more going on than meets the eye.
The Alternative Theories of the Russian Offensive
Yesterday on EndGameWW3's Twitter Space, I explained the economic levers that Russia is using against Ukraine. The most obvious one is its natural gas exports to Europe. Ukraine collects a fee for the gas that crosses its territory, and the Nord Stream pipelines allow Russia to export gas directly to consumers. Furthermore, most of Ukraine's energy comes from Natural Gas, and Russia can shut it off in the case of conflict. One of Ukraine's major exports to the rest of Europe is electricity, which will cause knock-on effects across the continent.
The other one is to bankrupt and exhaust Ukraine by keeping it in a heightened state of military readiness. Maintaining troops in the field is expensive, and Ukraine already has substantial active duty military and paramilitary units. Calling up reserves and irregular troops, equipping these troops, training them, and supervising them is substantially taxing on the financial and other resources of Ukraine.
On the other hand, Russia can leave troops in the field for longer because of its status as a petrostate. Energy producers can easily exchange energy products for cash for other use, like the military.
Another question I asked the other day is just how many troops Russia has outside of Ukraine. A lot of the Open-Source Intelligence videos on Twitter may come from Russian Information Operations personnel. If these were leaks from inside Russia, wouldn't you see more videos of troop transports? Could there be ghost divisions in position as feints?
This theory is not mutually exclusive with the actual intent to invade but part of a continuum of modern conflict. I will unpack this future, but warfighting is not limited to force-on-force combat as we've seen in Ukraine and elsewhere. Using leverage against other states to weaken the resolve of the other combatant and stakeholders allow for more decisive action later if necessary.
The Minsk II Protocol signed in 2015 was partially an effort by France and Germany to minimize the maneuver warfare in Eastern Ukraine that threatened the natural gas supply. With clear signs of softness and Russia rightfully "preparing" for battle by fighting by other nonconventional means, of course, Russia is looking to exert maximum pressure across all domains.
Just look at all the speculation that has gone on, including my own. Instead of catching the falling knife of guessing when an invasion occurs, consider all of Russia's Western flank actions as part of a multidimensional war. 4D Chess, if you will.
As Lenin said, "Probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw."
Russian Build Up Continues
This weekend Reuters reported that Russia is moving blood supplies to field units. Blood has a shelf life of about a couple of weeks, which suggests an imminent invasion of Ukraine.
This story comes right on the heels of the US Embassy in Ukraine issuing an email on how to leave Ukraine in the case of war.
I found the COVID rules mildly offensive. Imagine if you're fleeing a warzone, but you need to figure out Byzantine COVID lockdown rules of a neutral country. Especially since the lockdowns did not seem very effective.
The threat of invasion is grave, as the United States has emphasized repeatedly.