PsyOp or Mistake: CNN Fake News
Information Operations and Fake News in Eastern Europe
Ukraine seems quiet. Very quiet. There are multiple public and covert diplomatic channels open between all stakeholders in this current low-intensity conflict.
To recap: The United States prefers that the regular Russian Army not invade Ukraine. On the other hand, multiple European powers, including Germany, choose not to offend Russia above all else, fearing disruption in gas supply from the petrostate. Meanwhile, the United States, the United Kingdom, and multiple Eastern European countries are sending arms to Ukraine, hoping that these anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons deter further Russian aggression.
There is a lot of speculation about whether these arms get in the hands of the Ukrainian troops. They probably go into the military's hands and stay there as long as Oligarchs and Kleptocrats think the invasion is likely. Once that goes out the window, I speculate that these arms go to the open market. The Ukrainian Oligarchs repeatedly disregard Russia's military and covert invasion instead of looting the Ukrainian ability to hold their borders. There's also the secondary question of who owns the irregular forces. As we've seen in countries in Iraq and Afghanistan, irregulars and even uniformed troops loyalties are to warlords, not the country – perhaps in an organized crime state like Ukraine that is similar and these militias operate to extract money from the military aid system provided to Ukraine.
CNN Lies, Aids Russian Psychological Operations
The United States's position is that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent. CNN reported from an anonymous Senior Ukrainian Government Source that a phone conversation between US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Zelensky where Biden was to the point of hysteria.
Biden reportedly said that "Kiev could be sacked" and to "brace" and "prepare for impact." Both the Ukrainian government and the White House thoroughly rebuke the contents of the CNN report.
Where do we put our trust in this conversation? Probably Biden and Zelensky here. Just on face value, I cannot imagine the President of the United States using the term “sacked” on a phone call, especially a liberal one with a very liberal staff, given the connotations. No one wants to psych out the Ukrainian Commander-and-Chief before a possible land war with the Russian Army. You want a stubborn resistance. CNN has a track record of being very wrong, and sensationalism sells.
The erroneous reporting raises the giant specter of information operations and psychological warfare in an era of mass media. I call this "rule through press release." Still, in this case, an anonymous source claimed a falsehood to undermine military resistance of a friendly country to the United States, and CNN is complicit in this subversion.
In the modern era, the people who control the means of communication and those who can boost their thoughts often dictate reality through the perception of facts. Over a long enough time horizon, falsehoods can replace truths and facts through a "crowding out" of facts. With all sides engaging in constant, loud information and psychological operations, there is a responsibility for the public media to show discipline in reporting.
However, this is not how the media works. In my personal experience, many journalists are emotional and under tremendous pressure to write stories under deadline. The temptation to write something so inflammatory for fame and preserving one's job often takes hold of these usually overeducated persons. Then there is the group psychological effect of confirming people inside a group, usually under the idea of standards or the newer ultra-liberal corporate speak. The pressure to conform creates a syndicate mentality, mobster-style tribalism in the media class.
Then there's the actual organized crime and foreign intelligence assets who work in journalism and politics. The distinction between organized crime, journalism, politics, and espionage is blurred to the point where these distinctions are sometimes only semantic.
Zelensky is very consistent in not causing panic about Russian troop build-up.
I wouldn't be surprised if CNN is banned from interacting with members of the Ukrainian government.
Diplomatic Victories are Victories for Everyone
The little-publicized "Normandy-style" talks in Paris between France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia concluded in a ceasefire, with another discussion in Berlin in two weeks. The ceasefire appears to give diplomacy more room to operate to find a peaceful resolution.
The alternative view of the talks is that the weather is too warm for the tank-heavy Russian forces. The definition of a hard freeze in the United States is when the weather is below 25 Degrees Fahrenheit (about -4.0 C ) for several hours. According to Weather.com, the temperature in Kharkiv, Ukraine, is hovering in the 30s. Kharkiv is on the border of Ukraine and Russia. Russia would need to be a couple of days of a hard freeze with the tremendous amount of material involved already in the build-up.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753
Yesterday, the Kremlin said there's little hope for optimism following US Secretary of State Blinken's insistence there is no room to compromise. Russia's demands include the US and allies to curb preparation for an invasion, Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations to be denied entry to NATO, and no strategic weapons, including anti-missile batteries stationed in Ukraine.
There are reports that the ceasefire was almost immediately violated. [Note: I couldn't find many sources on this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the ceasefire were violated.]
Eastern Europe appears quiet as the parties jockey for diplomatic position. Hopefully, the storm of steel passes without incident.