Flashpoint: Russo-Ukraine Conflict
February 28, 2022
After a small hiatus from writing, I’m back to covering the conflict on my Substack. Previously I had live-covered the initial invasion by Russian forces into Ukraine. The war rages as Russia slowly captures territory and Ukraine doggedly defends their lands.
There are a lot of discussions around nationalism versus imperialism, Russia’s aims and goals, and what Ukraine will do as a sovereign nation. I won’t cover these in-depth just because the situation is so fluid that some speculation isn’t worth writing.
Current Situation
Russian forces are taking land despite problems we will discuss later. The reality is currently that Russia still has a land force advantage and can push Ukrainian units back thanks to its armor and artillery, even if Russian forces move from one blunder to another. We also see that Ukrainian troops are doing an excellent job of preserving their fighting capabilities under Russian pressure. Ukraine cannot replace armor. As equipment degrades, Ukrainian troops won't be able to maneuver to block Russian advances. However, Russian troops haven’t been able to encircle sufficiently large Ukrainian forces to start collapsing the fiercest of resistance.
Russian-friendly sources put forth maps that contradict the Western-friendly maps, showing a broader swath of territory controlled by the Russian forces. You should be skeptical about these maps since Russian forces haven’t achieved a breakthrough in these armored pushes and haven’t appeared to consolidate their supply lines.
The analysis is correct, in my opinion, though. Given the opening day offensives to Mariupol failed to take the city totally and the current successes of the Russian Army, Russian forces are maneuvering to encircle the fiercest of Ukrainian resistance. Russia still has mobility advantages and needs to pin down Ukrainian forces to destroy them in detail despite its problems.
Russian forces are reportedly taking a lot of casualties. While expected because of the nature of the attacker-defender asymmetry, we are seeing these shockingly high numbers. Russian troops appear to move from one blunder to another, causing needless casualties. We’ve seen several unsupported military lift operations by Russian forces shot down by Ukrainian defenders.
There are also a lot of videos of Russian vehicles broken down and abandoned in the field. We can glean two things from this: the Russian logistics chain is fragile. Normally you’d consider it to be broken down, but can it deem to be broken when it was never effective? The second is that Russia isn’t towing their vehicles nor rendering them inoperable hulks, meaning the Russians have to do field repairs and can’t lose the vehicles. Does Russia have enough heavy-tow capability?
Russian supply lines are weak and Ukrainian resistance is strong. One of the critical indicators of a problem with Russian forces is how long the Ukrainian Air Force operated or continued to operate. It’s unclear the current status of the Ukraine Air Force; however, Russia possesses some of the most sophisticated anti-aircraft and short-range ballistic missiles. The fact that Russia did not achieve air superiority on day one suggests that Russia is conservative with these missiles. Or, they’re not capable of effectively deploying these munitions.
Russia’s military-industrial complex is greatly diminished compared to the Soviet days. Its kleptocratic elite, not unlike Ukraine’s oligarchs, instead engage in speculative activities than industrial production since the return of production isn’t swiftly realized. Can Russia replace parts and missiles? I don’t know. It appears Russia has a similar problem of equipment degradation and limited ability to replace items like Ukraine’s military. Russia still has a total material advantage, but it doesn’t help if you can’t get material to the front.
On the point of sieges and civilian casualties – we still haven’t seen the kind of urban battles that this war can turn into quickly because Russia seems to avoid prolonged infantry battles in these cities largely. As we’ve seen today already, this strategy will change with Russian MLRS strikes into civilian areas as Russians compress or encircle Ukrainian troops.
Lastly – is Kyiv (Kiev) encircled? Likely, but maybe not totally. I will speculate further later. However, signs are dire that the Ukrainian government calls on any able-bodied civilian to fight Russians. There’s no clear indication of Ukrainian casualty rates, especially around the capital. As Ukrainian defenders are compressed and potentially encircled, they will rise.
Meanwhile, peace negotiations begin in earnest. I hope the war ends before this conflict escalates further into an apocalypse.
Later I’ll break down Russia’s mistakes, Ukraine’s material issues, Western weapons supply, and the combat.