Energy War in Europe
The Gas Must Flow
(https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/business/energy-environment/russia-oil-giant-selling-assets.html)
(From BBC)
Russia is a petrostate. Czarist Russia led the world in petroleum production in its still-rich oilfields in the Caucasus. So much so, according to Daniel Schulman, author of Sons of Wichita: How the Koch Brothers Became America's Most Powerful and Private Dynasty (2014), Standard Oil made overseas subsidiaries scramble for market share. Contrary to public knowledge, the Koch family got their start developing oil cracking technology for the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, they promote a brand of libertarianism that undermines national unity and discourages ordinary, conservative people from participating in government.
The Kochs never stopped their foreign mercenary behavior, but that's a digression.
As a result of Western, primarily American, engineers and conglomerates, chief civilian commercial products in the Soviet Union were wheat and oil. Key German objectives in the World War 2 Invasion of the Soviet Union, Operation Barbarossa, were to secure food supplies and petroleum. Europe was at constant risk of mass starvation before securing Ukraine and the Russian steppe, and oil was scarce. The Soviet Union could produce a tremendous amount of energy.
Turnaround about 70 years later, Russia is seeking to reintegrate parts or the whole of Ukraine into its sphere. Outside of the apparent expansion of NATO and Russian borders further East than historically, Ukraine is also a net exporter of coal and electricity while is dependent on Russian gas and oil. The Donbas region of Ukraine is a major coal mining area. Ukraine is a major producer of nuclear energy as well.
Contrary to public opinion, renewable energy development in Europe is in America's strategic interest since so much fuel comes from Russia or Russia-adjacent territory. At least in so far, the United States, European Union, and Russia remain in border disputes.
Russia and Gazprom Reveal Their Hand
Gazprom, the Russian state energy company responsible for extracting natural gas, came out with a statement on January 24, 2022, that European gas reserves are at all-time lows. This statement is a warning and a threat to the rest of Europe, coinciding with the planned "Normandy-style" talks with Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine to encourage some capitulation by European customers. At the same time, Germany is shutting down its nuclear power, and this winter's cold is more arduous than usual (I don't live in Europe, so I have no tangible way to measure this) spiked demand.
European Dependence on Russia
Russian energy doesn't just bind Germany to its whims, but many nations. Many other countries in and out of NATO are heavily dependent on Russian energy, with tremendous amounts of deference given toward Russian interests as a result. In Austria, for example, the disgraced former Chancellor of Austria, Sebastian Kurz, was ousted after a scandal involving Russia.
Biden Brings in Qatar to Counter Russian Threats
The basics of geopolitics are at play here, with the Biden Administration looking to source gas for Europe from Qatar. Russia and China are competitors with the United States, even adversaries. The commentary about supporting "democracy" in Eastern Europe is not a primary consideration (thank God, because we'd be in dozens of wars of choice). The gas must flow, and Russia can't be allowed to extort the rest of NATO.
Return of Great Power Politics
Even though this liberal internationalism revs up the allies to get very mad at Russia, it is more harmful than good. Liberal supremacy creates unrealistic expectations, like the idea that Ukraine is sufficiently battle-hardened to hold back the weight of Russia. Or that thermobaric missiles care if Ukrainian troops are empowered, women. At best, Ukraine can delay decisive Russian victories. In practice, the Biden Administration is breaking with the Obama Administration's International Liberalism. It’s now Biden’s Liberalism-in-one-Country. Biden spurned his progressive base that demands conflict with every country that dares to say something mean about the sanctified group du jour. The situation compels me to admit that the Biden Administration so far has acted more hawkish against Chinese companies and more pro-American industry than some of the more famous personalities in the Trump Administration. That's a story for another day. That is not to say that the Biden Administration is healthy.