Clash of Steel and Wills?
Will Russia Launch its Invasion of Ukraine?
(Image from the Russian Military)
As I mentioned on Saturday, Western powers believe there’s an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. The day we’re given is Wednesday, local time. We’ll analyze this further below. It’s crucial to develop a recent timeline of events to see why there’s a high probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
A quick aside on two significant items brought up repeatedly on Twitter replies to me and others about the nature of the impending conflict. First is the comparison to World War II. Yes, Russians and Ukrainians fought in the Second World War, and yes, Russia developed a set of military unique military doctrines as a result. That is where the comparisons should end.
Russian troops today are far more elite than their predecessors. The Russian forces are far better equipped as well. Russia is a technologically sophisticated country with both similar and distinct weapons platforms from the United States. It has one of the most significant air forces on the planet. Russia also doesn’t throw away manpower, contrary to popular Western opinion.
The second point, tied to the first, is the question of an insurgency against Russian occupation. The answer to that question is another question: under what timeline? On a large enough timescale, it is possible that many things can happen. But what does that mean for the actual invasion?
The primary resistance to Russian troops will be the regular Ukrainian forces - not paramilitaries, not the irregulars. The keys to resisting a militarily sophisticated maneuver army are discipline, communications, and digging in. It requires lucid clarity and a dogged determination to not surrender key territory despite whatever Russia throws at the defenders.
Russia will throw tremendous amounts of firepower at fixed Ukrainian positions. Their limited aims will also allow them to focus on the Eastern Ukrainian portion of the country – not the entirety of that country. There will be a reluctance for civilians who are pro-Ukraine’s government to remain in the city centers, especially if Ukrainian military resistance is questionable. The particularly nasty aspect of the civil war in the background of the Russo-Ukraine conflict is that pro-Russia people know who the loudest pro-Ukraine people are in Eastern Ukraine.
The more comparable example is the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. There, 300,000 coalition troops broke through 1,310,000 Iraqi troops. The much-advertised Fedayeen Saddam irregulars performed very poorly and never had the numbers more than a news story. Despite those Ukrainian irregulars may well be of better quality, the result may be the same in Eastern Europe.
To carry on the example, “shock and awe” is the name of the H-Hour. Russian forces will launch a technologically advanced shock campaign combining modern electronic and cyber warfare, psychological and information warfare, and large-scale bombardment while using their ability to engage in smaller scale strikes ahead of the armored thrust.
Who will own the night? Given the apparent low density of basic soldiering equipment in Ukraine, I suspect the amount of night optics in the Ukrainian military is lacking. Russia will dominate the night fighting.
However, everyone is wrong so far on whether the invasion happens. As I pointed out earlier, the Russian army provides other leverage against Ukraine to accomplish Russia’s goals.
Diplomatic Collapse
As I mentioned earlier on Saturday, it appears Western nations failed at a diplomatic resolution.
While Ukraine President Zelensky reaffirms Ukraine’s interest in joining NATO, the US State Department moves the American Embassy to Lviv, a city in Western Ukraine.
The situation also escalates further, where Ukrainian oligarchs flee the country ahead of the Wednesday morning expected attack.
Russian combat units are in aggressive positioning at launch points for invasion. As other commentators note, the Russians cannot maintain this position indefinitely. However, Russia can maintain a higher military readiness than Ukraine for longer, given the size and capability differences.
Today, two significant stories came out regarding Russian military positioning. One is the presence of Russian “mercenaries” in the country. If true, these paramilitary forces represent a special operations vanguard (in the most literal definition of special operation). These prepositioned troops could seize strategic territory, knock out command and control structures of the Ukrainian Army.
Lastly, Russian troops appear to be pulling back to bases closer to the Ukrainian border than where they were initially. According to NATO or common sense, this is not a sign of de-escalation.
Russia has achieved none of its aims and has no guarantees about Ukraine not joining NATO in the future. Russia won’t walk away from this critical strategic objective.
Russia and Ukraine are not our problem. Our problem is right here at home and north of the border and in every major western democracy where authoritarianism is shutting down free and democratic people. Where our constitutional underpinnings of individual liberty and freedom is being eviscerated, mocked, laughed by elected and unelected officials, judges, even our media supports the elimination of free speech!! Where our own borders are porous, an invading army of fighting age men crosses at will and is resettled and given housing, healthcare, public funding that citizens don't even receive. No. We fix our problems here. Not one American needs to die, not one ounce of American treasure needs to go to interfere in Russia's border disputes. Orchestrated insanity to take the public attention away from the destruction of our homeland.