Brace for Impact

False Flags and Justifying Claims

(Reuters)

Wednesday morning came and went without a full-scale Russian invasion. Western Intelligence warned Ukraine, very publicly, that Russia intended to invade on the morning of February 16. Russia asserts it is not positioning troops to invade Ukraine. I contend it too soon to say that is not true, especially with signs of Russian forces positioned on the Ukraine border.

I explained that Russia would use its Army as economic leverage in the past. This assessment is consistent with Ukrainian President Zelensky now saying that the crisis is causing a massive economic impact. Calling up reserves and irregular forces, mass mobilizations, filling supply and ammo dumps, and building new defenses are very expensive. Russia can keep its troops at a high readiness longer than Ukraine because of its limited economic impact.

Russian Economic Warfare

Reuters @Reuters

U.S. says Russia's claim of withdrawing troops from border with Ukraine is false reut.rs/3gTu3HG

Russia claimed on Tuesday and Wednesday that it was pulling troops back from positions to their bases. However, these bases both appear closer to Ukraine itself, and the US is now saying there are even more troops along the Russo-Ukrainian border.

The Guardian @guardian

Ukraine crisis: Russia has deployed 7,000 more troops to border, US official claims – live

theguardian.comUkraine crisis: Joe Biden accuses Russia of running ‘false flag operation’ to justify invasion – liveUS president says threat of Russian invasion ‘very high’, after Ukraine government source says shelling ‘looks like provocation’

Contrary to some on Twitter, Ukraine is taking the threat of invasion very seriously. Ukraine does not have the luxury of bombastic rhetoric, whereas non-combatant powers have that luxury. Russia is a direct threat to the nation. On the flip side, Russia’s rhetoric is also deliberate and measured, though intensifying in the last few days.

Clint Ehrlich @ClintEhrlich

URGENT: Russia's equivalent of the FBI has announced the discovery of mass graves in Eastern Ukraine. It is opening an investigation into whether the victims were killed by Ukraine's military. THIS is how a war could plausibly start. jpost.com/international/…

Clint Ehrlich @ClintEhrlich

PATH TO WAR? The #1 story in Russian media is now the alleged attack by Ukraine's military on the breakaway Lugansk Republic. When combined with the recent discovery of mass graves, the risk of RU military intervention just increased.

Within the last 24 hours, two major stories spread from Russia and Russian-aligned sources. Russian Security Services claimed they found a mass grave in Eastern Ukraine of pro-Russian supporters, allegedly killed by Ukrainian paramilitaries. This claim by itself can be a pretext for direct military intervention in Eastern Ukraine, true or not. The second is the alleged shelling of Russian-aligned rebels in Eastern Ukraine in violation of the ceasefire.

The timing of these stories is important as well. They roughly came out in English-speaking social media about 0730 Moscow time – meaning there’s a full day’s news cycle to escalate rhetoric internally in Russia. The Russian government can build popular support for the casus belli of these two stories.

NBC4 Washington @nbcwashington

President Biden says the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is "very high." "We have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false flag operation." Full coverage: nbc4dc.com/hhNy3tn

Minutes ago, US President Joe Biden accused Russia of building up a false flag operation to justify conflict. The situation is rapidly accelerating, and diplomacy is rapidly deteriorating.

Hour-by-hour, the possibility of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine rises.